Hello everyone, my name is Zenyk Matchyshyn, and despite the fact that the war is still going on, I would like to share my thoughts about possible developments in Ukraine.
The reality is that many businesses, especially in the east, will no longer work. And those that will restart, will not do so soon. Even if there are investments, Russia will not disappear from the map, and it is very naive to count on serious industrial things in the near future. Even if there is money and good will, it will be years before things start up again.
Light industry is much better, there recovery will be much faster, but it will not be able to give serious growth right away.
However, there is one industry that does not require serious investment, it is possible to radically increase the number of employed people and generate serious exports in a short time.
Of course it’s IT
I think that IT should be one of the key and leading industries of the new Ukraine. To be more specific: to give +1 million jobs this year and +3 million jobs next year.
Why?
In 3-6 months, you can radically increase the number of people involved in the industry, with very little cost. And this industry is one of the few where it can be done remotely.
Factors that will contribute to development
Russian and Belarusian IT essentially died. Chinese IT is still alive, but the events and behavior of China cast great doubt on the possibility of strategic development of service IT as a direction.
Many countries, which were typical providers of such services, took a neutral and pro-Russian position, thereby putting themselves under attack, since even after the war, sanctions will not be lifted, and secondary ones will only be strengthened. Accordingly, the strengthened trust will make them less obvious strategic partners in the field of IT.
On a personal level, of course, they support, but from the business side it is a risk to do business with Ukraine now, but this is a temporary situation. The active phase of the war will not last for years. As soon as the active phase of the war ends, on the contrary, they will want to have even more points of contact, because instead of giving money, it is better to give work. In this way, there will be a personal contribution from their side, and the business will be strengthened. Transformation of the message “Ukrainians are a strong and brave nation that has a strong and brave army” into “Ukrainians are smart and hardworking specialists who are not afraid to solve difficult tasks.”
Ukraine will still be in the EU and will have other dramatic improvements in business interaction with the civilized world that will make
IT even easier.X
What exactly is meant by 1-3 million jobs
There are three big reserves for growth:
1. People who are already in IT and who can do more.
2. People who are not in IT, but wanted to, just weren’t persistent enough, or there wasn’t a good opportunity to join.
3. People who are not in IT, who did not want to, but can.
The first group is interesting, but it is more about the middle link, which is also necessary.
The second and third groups are the most interesting. A chronic problem of IT is that it is very difficult to work with beginners in most companies. The nature of this problem is that this is a service business. That is, the client has to pay for the person in one way or another. Which means that a person should bring at least some benefit from the first hour of work. Some companies have different methods to facilitate this moment, however, for the vast majority, the option of “throw it on the project and they will figure it out” is not acceptable, no matter how much everyone wants it. On the part of potential candidates, this leads to a closed circle: no skills – no work – no work – no understanding of what to study.
The mechanism of “pulling up” people without experience is partially working – one way or another, the industry is growing, but far from everyone who wanted to get there.
if you look at the current solutions, there are 3 approaches
1. By means of companies — the best, but it is reactive. There is a vision of a particular company, what will happen in the future, and they shape it for themselves.
2. Training centers and educational institutions are good, but there is a financial aspect. People are really taught, but not always because it is necessary, and you still have to pay for it.
3. Self-learning is the simplest, but it is the most difficult, because it is very difficult to move when the direction is not very clear.
When we set the goal of 1 million jobs this year, we see the following modification of solutions:
1. Company management can take a leap of faith and increase focus on training, despite the depressed current market, with the belief of recovery in the near future, given that training itself also takes time
2. There are some organizations in the world that are not very comfortable giving money for weapons to cause death to enemies, even if these enemies are Russians. And they are also not very comfortable giving money for “fish”, that is, the restoration of civil infrastructure. However, they are very comfortable giving money for a “net to catch fish”. They will be just the perfect patrons to preemptively launch paid trainings, which, only in close cooperation with companies, will be able to increase the number of trained people.
The third point is the most interesting. If you combine people who are already in IT and have a little free time as mentors, with people who are not in IT, but have a lot of free time and a lot of motivation, and wrap it in a commercial wrapper, you get a surprisingly successful combination.
In the language of war, it is like Territorial Defense (TrO). He is not yet an army, he will not yet go head-on against the regular army, but he can perform some not very difficult tasks and is actively studying. Plus, there are professional military personnel who understand what is happening and what needs to be done.
The idea is to apply this very method to training on a very large scale with commercial adaptation. IT mentors train beginners to acquire real skills. We do motivation on a commercial basis using the “pay later, in case of success” model. Which does not require money immediately, but keeps people who are already in the industry interested and can choose another activity. There are already movements in the market in this direction, the idea of doing it on the scale of hundreds of thousands, millions.
Motivation as a key to success
My experience says that if a person is VERY MOTIVATED, then in 3-6 months you can reach the beginner level. Plus, IT isn’t just a senior Kubernetes architect scaling servers with billions of crypto-paid AI medical data requests, it’s also a much simpler profession where skills can be acquired in a much shorter amount of time.
Another important factor is psychological. Those who are not actively involved in the war or clearly at the front or in the rear, for example, through volunteering, but simply sit without work, not knowing where to apply themselves, but understanding that the end of the war is only the beginning of economic difficulties. They will have this training as an opportunity to switch psychologically so as not to fall into a negative spiral and have optimism that if they study, they will get a well-paid job.
IT prospects
By eye, the combination of 1+2+3 gives 10%+20%+70% of people from the goal of 1 million by the end of the year. The main idea is horizontal structures with clearly structured motivation of participants.
I think we will win the war, but it will take a lot of money. When we are given money, it is, of course, good and pleasant, but it is much better when we earn it ourselves, and a lot of it, and spend it on what we consider necessary ourselves.
These thoughts and ideas do not deny movement in other directions. It’s just that in IT it’s easier for me to describe how quickly you can train a lot of people to start making good money.
This approach is not something radically new, just a serious blow to the economy and a radical motivation to act gives a fresh look at it. It is one thing to give a couple of hundred hryvnias to volunteers at the human level. Another is to give a couple of thousand dollars.
A radical strengthening of the payment capacity will radically strengthen our potential. Therefore, earning a lot is not just cool, it is now a matter of life and death. Poor Ukraine can win this stage of the war. However, a rich Ukraine will make victory in the future stage of the war automatic and irreversible.